US CPI YoY (Consumer Price Index, Year over Year)

What it is

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures how prices paid by urban US consumers change over time for a fixed basket of goods and services. The year-over-year (YoY) variant compares the current month’s index level to the same month twelve months ago. That gives you a headline inflation rate in percent.

The report is published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) around the second week of the following month, at 08:30 ET.

Two numbers land in the same report:

Headline CPI includes everything in the basket.
Core CPI strips out food and energy, which are volatile. Core is considered a cleaner read on the underlying inflation trend.

Why traders care

CPI is the Federal Reserve’s most-watched inflation indicator. It shapes what the market expects from Fed policy, and that expectation flows through to:

Dollar strength via yield differentials.
Bond yields, especially the short and belly of the curve.
Equity valuations, with high-duration growth stocks (NDX) the most sensitive.
Gold, which acts as both an inflation hedge and a dollar-inverse asset.
Crypto, which has traded as a high-beta liquidity proxy during recent cycles.

Intraday CPI reactions are often the largest single-print moves of any month. That’s why we score it Tier 1 by default.

How to read it

Three numbers matter on release:

Headline YoY vs consensus sets the initial tape direction.
Core YoY vs consensus is what the Fed reaction function cares about more.
Month-over-month core is the “pace” gauge. A low YoY with a hot MoM suggests inflation is re-accelerating. A high YoY with a cool MoM suggests the trend is rolling over.

Rule-of-thumb reactions

Outcome	USD	Gold	SPX	US10Y yield
Hot print (above consensus)	↑	↓	↓	↑
In-line	Mixed	Mixed	Mixed	Mixed
Cool print (below consensus)	↓	↑	↑	↓

Reactions invert when positioning is lopsided. A hot print into a heavily short USD positioning can squeeze the dollar lower, not higher. Context matters.

What we do in the terminal

On CPI release day, Trading Hub Terminal:

Flags the event at Tier 1 impact on the calendar and feed.
Surfaces the forecast, previous print, and consensus range.
Highlights affected symbols in your watchlist with a pre-event caution badge starting 30 minutes before release.
After release, joins the print with our macro commentary so you’re not scanning five sources to get one story.

Common pitfalls

Don’t confuse CPI with PCE. The Fed’s preferred gauge is core PCE, released later in the month. CPI moves markets more because it arrives first. PCE confirms the narrative.
Watch base effects. A YoY print can move sharply in either direction simply because the comparable month twelve months ago was unusual. Cross-check with the MoM track to filter this out.
Remember the shelter lag. Rent inflation enters CPI with a significant lag versus real-time rental markets. Some analysts net this out for a “super-core” read.